I glibly wrote a blog post Sunday saying how confident I was that data was pointing to a Hillary Clinton win. Pretty much all the polls were showing that; almost all serious political data analysts and models said the same.
What went wrong?
I’ll leave political reasons to others. From a data-science perspective, though, I’m interested in learning something from this data debacle. The key issue I see is not fully understanding uncertainty when it comes to forecasting elections – a good lesson for anyone who tries to make predictions from data.