I glibly wrote a blog post Sunday saying how confident I was that data was pointing to a Hillary Clinton win. Pretty much all the polls were showing that; almost all serious political data analysts and models said the same.

What went wrong?

I’ll leave political reasons to others. From a data-science perspective, though, I’m interested in learning something from this data debacle. The key issue I see is not fully understanding uncertainty when it comes to forecasting elections – a good lesson for anyone who tries to make predictions from data.

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